Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Aho wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 54.9% vs Thompson 43.7% (+12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 64.4%
Defensive zone
Thompson 60.4%
Neutral zone
Thompson 70.8%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 63.5%
36.5%
63.5%
Aho
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Aho
Thompson
Last 6: Aho 2-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Aho
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
3
Aho
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (870)
41.9% (597)
+12.6%
Power Play
62.4% (266)
50.5% (95)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
37.1% (62)
25.0% (12)
+12.1%
On even strength, Aho has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Aho is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (393).
Aho shoots left. Thompson is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Aho
Thompson
Home
53.9% (603)
47.1% (367)
Away
56.8% (595)
38.0% (337)
By Period
Aho
Thompson
P1
54.1%
44.2%
P2
55.0%
41.6%
P3
57.4%
42.9%
OT
33.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
55.4%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:55 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:46 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 2 | 01:04 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 1 | 11:05 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:32 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 02:01 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |