Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 52.2% vs Gourde 49.5% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 79.6%
Defensive zone
Gourde 56.7%
Neutral zone
Gourde 50.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 79.6%
79.6%
20.4%
Aho
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Aho
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
1
Aho
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (819)
49.1% (731)
+2.5%
Power Play
58.4% (173)
54.3% (81)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (67)
48.2% (85)
-1.9%
On power play, Aho has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Aho is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Aho shoots left. Gourde is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (556).
Home / Away
Aho
Gourde
Home
53.9% (568)
50.9% (479)
Away
50.7% (491)
47.8% (418)
By Period
Aho
Gourde
P1
55.4%
51.2%
P2
51.2%
49.8%
P3
50.9%
47.5%
OT
28.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
52.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 19:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 10:32 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 1 | 12:20 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |