Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.0% vs Gourde 46.0% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 66.7%
Defensive zone
Gourde 79.0%
Neutral zone
Gourde 55.9%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 60.2%
39.8%
60.2%
Aho
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Aho
Gourde
Last 10: Aho 4-6 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Aho
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Aho
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
4
Aho
Gourde
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (851)
47.2% (654)
+2.7%
Power Play
53.5% (144)
45.0% (20)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (60)
32.2% (87)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Aho shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Aho
Gourde
Home
53.2% (554)
44.1% (322)
Away
46.5% (501)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Aho
Gourde
P1
49.1%
42.4%
P2
50.8%
49.8%
P3
49.7%
44.3%
OT
58.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 19:44 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 09:18 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 03:40 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 17:22 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 15:31 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:20 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 17:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 15:02 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |