Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Aho wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 54.9% vs Gourde 49.7% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 70.4%
Defensive zone
Gourde 72.3%
Neutral zone
Gourde 55.6%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Aho
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Aho
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Aho
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (870)
51.2% (469)
+3.3%
Power Play
62.4% (266)
42.9% (21)
+19.5%
Penalty Kill
37.1% (62)
37.5% (48)
-0.4%
On power play, Aho has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Aho shoots left. Gourde is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Home / Away
Aho
Gourde
Home
53.9% (603)
47.8% (301)
Away
56.8% (595)
51.9% (237)
By Period
Aho
Gourde
P1
54.1%
47.3%
P2
55.0%
53.4%
P3
57.4%
48.6%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.4%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 08:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 07:26 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |