Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.4% vs Crosby 48.3% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 91.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.7%
Neutral zone
Crosby 67.4%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 58.6%
41.4%
58.6%
Nelson
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Nelson
Crosby
Last 6: Nelson 5-1 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Nelson
Crosby
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Crosby
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Crosby
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (688)
46.8% (1,360)
-3.8%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
53.8% (357)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
45.2% (31)
-0.9%
On even strength, Crosby has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Nelson is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (505).
Nelson shoots left. Crosby is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,127).
Home / Away
Nelson
Crosby
Home
41.9% (391)
51.0% (867)
Away
45.5% (400)
45.4% (881)
By Period
Nelson
Crosby
P1
47.1%
50.8%
P2
43.0%
47.9%
P3
40.9%
46.5%
OT
63.6%
35.1%
Final 5 min
43.6%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
43.7%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2016 | 1 | 13:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2016 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 27, 2016 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 27, 2016 | 3 | 00:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 27, 2016 | 2 | 14:47 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 27, 2016 | 1 | 16:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |