Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.5% vs Crosby 55.1% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 16-9 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 70.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 54.3%
Neutral zone
Crosby 51.8%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
O'Reilly
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
16
(25 meetings)
9
16
O'Reilly
Crosby
Last 10: O'Reilly 4-6 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
3
11
O'Reilly
Crosby
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
2
O'Reilly
Crosby
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
O'Reilly
Crosby
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (1,367)
54.7% (1,423)
+2.4%
Power Play
59.4% (286)
62.1% (327)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
52.5% (257)
40.8% (76)
+11.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,201).
O'Reilly shoots left. Crosby is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,229).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Crosby
Home
59.2% (936)
56.2% (907)
Away
54.6% (974)
54.6% (919)
By Period
O'Reilly
Crosby
P1
57.3%
55.7%
P2
57.5%
55.0%
P3
55.0%
54.9%
OT
71.1%
70.4%
Final 5 min
54.7%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2019 | 3 | 10:09 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 3 | 02:41 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 3 | 02:20 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 2 | 14:11 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 2 | 00:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 1 | 13:09 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 1 | 08:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 1 | 05:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 1 | 05:23 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 3 | 08:38 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 3 | 06:53 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 3 | 04:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 1 | 19:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |