Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.2% vs Crosby 52.8% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 71.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 84.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
O'Reilly
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
O'Reilly
Crosby
Last 10: O'Reilly 7-3 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Crosby
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
0
O'Reilly
Crosby
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
2
O'Reilly
Crosby
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (690)
52.5% (1,443)
+3.6%
Power Play
64.6% (96)
54.7% (369)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (109)
55.9% (34)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
O'Reilly shoots left. Crosby is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,199).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Crosby
Home
58.3% (408)
53.0% (931)
Away
53.6% (487)
53.0% (915)
By Period
O'Reilly
Crosby
P1
57.7%
50.3%
P2
54.8%
55.4%
P3
55.2%
53.3%
OT
45.5%
47.4%
Final 5 min
50.5%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 14:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 08:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 08:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 14:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 04:56 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 00:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |