Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.5% vs 48.9%). Frost wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 49.5% vs Lorentz 49.4% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 75.0%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 54.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 62.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
Frost
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Frost
Lorentz
Last 5: Frost 4-1 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Lorentz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Lorentz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Lorentz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (704)
48.9% (135)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
50.0% (4)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, Lorentz has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Frost is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Frost shoots left. Lorentz is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (97).
Home / Away
Frost
Lorentz
Home
49.9% (399)
50.7% (75)
Away
49.1% (424)
46.9% (64)
By Period
Frost
Lorentz
P1
51.2%
60.0%
P2
53.9%
46.3%
P3
42.7%
44.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 17:19 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 04:49 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 10:34 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |