Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 50.7% vs Lorentz 49.4% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 67.9%
Defensive zone
McLeod 68.9%
Neutral zone
McLeod 67.9%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 68.2%
68.2%
31.8%
McLeod
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
McLeod
Lorentz
Last 6: McLeod 5-1 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
0
McLeod
Lorentz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
3
1
McLeod
Lorentz
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (628)
48.9% (135)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
30.6% (49)
50.0% (4)
-19.4%
On penalty kill, Lorentz has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. McLeod is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (507).
McLeod shoots left. Lorentz is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (97).
Home / Away
McLeod
Lorentz
Home
51.5% (394)
50.7% (75)
Away
50.0% (324)
46.9% (64)
By Period
McLeod
Lorentz
P1
51.5%
60.0%
P2
47.0%
46.3%
P3
54.3%
44.0%
Final 5 min
50.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
50.8%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 18:58 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 18:01 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 09:33 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 05:33 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 02:32 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 02:27 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |