Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.9% vs 55.4%). Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Horvat wins 56.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.4% vs Stamkos 54.4% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 52.9%
Defensive zone
Horvat 63.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 55.2%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Horvat
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Horvat
Stamkos
Last 6: Horvat 2-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Horvat
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
3
Horvat
Stamkos
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (670)
55.8% (339)
-0.6%
Power Play
61.8% (225)
53.3% (90)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (98)
62.5% (8)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Horvat is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (396).
Horvat shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Horvat
Stamkos
Home
58.1% (449)
53.4% (208)
Away
54.0% (544)
57.2% (229)
By Period
Horvat
Stamkos
P1
59.2%
55.3%
P2
53.1%
52.5%
P3
55.8%
58.9%
OT
55.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
59.5%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.9%
Stamkos
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 12:53 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 09:59 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |