Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 43.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 50.2% vs Stamkos 53.8% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 71.2%
Defensive zone
Hayes 72.4%
Neutral zone
Hayes 70.8%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 71.5%
71.5%
28.5%
Hayes
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Hayes
Stamkos
Last 7: Hayes 1-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Hayes
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Hayes
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (672)
54.1% (460)
-2.8%
Power Play
50.0% (78)
64.2% (106)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
40.8% (76)
45.3% (106)
-4.5%
On power play, Stamkos has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Hayes is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (300).
Hayes shoots left. Stamkos is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Home / Away
Hayes
Stamkos
Home
52.0% (404)
58.2% (328)
Away
48.6% (422)
50.6% (344)
By Period
Hayes
Stamkos
P1
50.7%
57.5%
P2
50.2%
53.1%
P3
49.8%
52.7%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
52.9%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
50.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 17:40 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 07:14 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 03:25 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 16:00 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 03:17 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |