Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 49.5% vs Stamkos 53.4% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 75.1%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 88.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 73.2%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 76.2%
23.8%
76.2%
Hayes
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Hayes
Stamkos
Last 9: Hayes 7-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
5
1
Hayes
Stamkos
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Hayes
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
0
Hayes
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (557)
55.3% (628)
-6.8%
Power Play
53.3% (107)
55.1% (216)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
40.2% (87)
+18.1%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Hayes is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (237).
Hayes shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Home / Away
Hayes
Stamkos
Home
50.8% (313)
55.5% (499)
Away
48.2% (363)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Hayes
Stamkos
P1
52.3%
50.7%
P2
47.7%
53.8%
P3
48.4%
55.9%
OT
50.0%
87.5%
Final 5 min
50.9%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 14:27 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 12:19 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 09:46 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 00:44 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 17:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 05:42 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |