Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.9% vs 49.7%). Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Bjugstad wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.0% vs Stamkos 49.8% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 53.7%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 61.6%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 65.9%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Bjugstad
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Bjugstad
Stamkos
Last 9: Bjugstad 2-7 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Bjugstad
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
6
Bjugstad
Stamkos
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (806)
48.7% (831)
-1.4%
Power Play
55.0% (149)
53.5% (86)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
59.0% (39)
69.2% (26)
-10.2%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Bjugstad is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (301).
Bjugstad shoots right. Stamkos is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Stamkos
Home
55.4% (446)
52.5% (474)
Away
43.6% (548)
46.9% (469)
By Period
Bjugstad
Stamkos
P1
49.4%
46.3%
P2
48.1%
52.0%
P3
48.6%
51.2%
OT
61.1%
43.8%
Final 5 min
48.4%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2015 | 3 | 18:39 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2015 | 2 | 17:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2015 | 1 | 10:48 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2015 | 1 | 10:40 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2015 | 1 | 10:24 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2015 | 1 | 04:17 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 9, 2014 | 3 | 19:34 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 9, 2014 | 3 | 09:44 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 9, 2014 | 1 | 13:41 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |