Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stamkos wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 50.9% vs Thompson 41.2% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 73.2%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 60.8%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 67.7%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Stamkos
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stamkos
Thompson
Last 5: Stamkos 3-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
3
0
Stamkos
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
Stamkos
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (789)
40.6% (801)
+8.7%
Power Play
56.9% (181)
44.7% (103)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
54.1% (98)
31.0% (71)
+23.1%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Stamkos is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Stamkos shoots right. Thompson is 41.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Thompson
Home
52.0% (512)
43.2% (507)
Away
50.2% (556)
37.2% (468)
By Period
Stamkos
Thompson
P1
42.1%
37.7%
P2
56.4%
43.4%
P3
53.7%
39.5%
OT
62.5%
27.3%
Final 5 min
51.7%
39.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 17:00 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 11:03 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 1 | 01:13 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |