Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 54.6% vs Thompson 45.3% (+11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 89.8%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 69.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 78.3%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 84.1%
84.1%
15.9%
Stamkos
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Stamkos
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
0
Stamkos
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
0
Stamkos
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (342)
44.9% (642)
+11.2%
Power Play
53.3% (92)
47.9% (94)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (8)
33.3% (33)
+29.2%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +29.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Stamkos is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Stamkos shoots right. Thompson is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Thompson
Home
53.4% (208)
46.0% (391)
Away
57.7% (234)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Stamkos
Thompson
P1
55.6%
48.1%
P2
52.8%
44.9%
P3
59.1%
41.2%
OT
62.5%
42.9%
Final 5 min
56.6%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 09:47 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 00:16 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |