Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stamkos wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 53.4% vs Nosek 58.0% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 85.5%
Defensive zone
Nosek 87.5%
Neutral zone
Nosek 67.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Stamkos
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stamkos
Nosek
Last 5: Stamkos 3-2 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
3
0
Stamkos
Nosek
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
2
Stamkos
Nosek
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (628)
59.7% (469)
-4.4%
Power Play
55.1% (216)
100.0% (4)
-44.9%
Penalty Kill
40.2% (87)
56.5% (124)
-16.3%
On power play, Nosek has a +44.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Stamkos shoots right. Nosek is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (275).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Nosek
Home
55.5% (499)
59.0% (295)
Away
51.9% (432)
59.6% (302)
By Period
Stamkos
Nosek
P1
50.7%
56.3%
P2
53.8%
61.9%
P3
55.9%
59.2%
OT
87.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
61.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 19:38 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 06:03 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 17:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 16:20 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 00:19 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |