Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 51.0% vs Nosek 53.6% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 61.4%
Defensive zone
Nosek 81.8%
Neutral zone
Nosek 63.5%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Stamkos
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
8
(19 meetings)
11
8
Stamkos
Nosek
Last 10: Stamkos 5-5 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
8
1
Stamkos
Nosek
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Stamkos
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
2
5
Stamkos
Nosek
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (9,799)
54.9% (2,674)
-4.5%
Power Play
55.1% (1,725)
44.7% (47)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
49.7% (825)
47.4% (424)
+2.3%
On power play, Stamkos has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Stamkos shoots right. Nosek is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,203).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Nosek
Home
52.7% (6,248)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
49.3% (6,127)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Stamkos
Nosek
P1
49.1%
52.3%
P2
52.7%
54.0%
P3
50.9%
54.6%
OT
54.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 08:37 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 02:36 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 01:56 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 19:38 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 06:03 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 17:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 16:20 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 00:19 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 2 | 02:09 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 19:32 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 19:11 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 2 | 12:45 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 1 | 05:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 1 | 16:01 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |