Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Thompson 43.7% (+14.0%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 15-4 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 88.5%
Defensive zone
Matthews 98.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 95.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 92.9%
92.9%
7.1%
Matthews
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
4
(19 meetings)
15
4
Matthews
Thompson
Last 10: Matthews 9-1 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
6
2
Matthews
Thompson
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
6
2
Matthews
Thompson
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
41.9% (597)
+16.4%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
50.5% (95)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
25.0% (12)
+25.7%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Thompson is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Matthews
Thompson
Home
59.1% (528)
47.1% (367)
Away
55.1% (695)
38.0% (337)
By Period
Matthews
Thompson
P1
56.2%
44.2%
P2
58.1%
41.6%
P3
56.4%
42.9%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 09:39 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 17:43 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 08:46 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 14:11 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 09:30 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 06:15 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:16 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 15:45 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 02:27 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:30 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |