Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Thompson 44.0% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 93.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 84.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 91.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 89.9%
89.9%
10.1%
Larkin
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Larkin
Thompson
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Thompson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Thompson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
44.6% (709)
+11.3%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
41.5% (53)
+15.9%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
35.1% (97)
+11.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Thompson is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thompson
Home
56.0% (654)
45.5% (426)
Away
54.8% (639)
41.1% (433)
By Period
Larkin
Thompson
P1
54.4%
48.5%
P2
55.9%
43.8%
P3
55.2%
38.1%
OT
64.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 19:28 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 18:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 16:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 09:40 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 09:27 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 10:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 07:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 13:51 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |