Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Thompson 45.2% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 65.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 96.9%
Neutral zone
Evans 90.9%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 87.3%
87.3%
12.7%
Evans
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Evans
Thompson
Last 9: Evans 7-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
3
1
Evans
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
44.7% (631)
+11.5%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
47.9% (94)
+22.1%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
33.3% (33)
+22.1%
On power play, Evans has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Evans is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Evans shoots right. Thompson is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Evans
Thompson
Home
55.3% (374)
46.0% (391)
Away
57.1% (317)
43.1% (367)
By Period
Evans
Thompson
P1
58.5%
47.7%
P2
55.7%
44.9%
P3
53.9%
41.3%
OT
66.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
54.3%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Thompson
30.0%▼
39.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 19:12 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 06:29 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 06:22 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 05:26 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 14:58 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:49 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:38 | Defensive | Jake Evans |