Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Thompson wins 41.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 45.2% vs Hertl 57.1% (-13.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 93.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 74.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 83.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 78.9%
21.1%
78.9%
Thompson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Thompson
Hertl
Last 6: Thompson 4-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Thompson
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
3
1
Thompson
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
0
Thompson
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (631)
58.0% (816)
-13.3%
Power Play
47.9% (94)
56.5% (260)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (33)
62.9% (35)
-29.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +29.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (538).
Thompson shoots right. Hertl is 59.5% vs right-shot opponents (422).
Home / Away
Thompson
Hertl
Home
46.0% (391)
59.7% (561)
Away
43.1% (367)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Thompson
Hertl
P1
47.7%
51.4%
P2
44.9%
64.1%
P3
41.3%
58.5%
OT
42.9%
28.6%
Final 5 min
42.4%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
30.0%▼
39.5%
44.6%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:14 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 04:02 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |