Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Thompson wins 42.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 45.9% vs Hertl 57.2% (-12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 91.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 66.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 75.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 71.8%
28.2%
71.8%
Thompson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Thompson
Hertl
Last 6: Thompson 4-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Thompson
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
3
1
Thompson
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
0
Thompson
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (721)
58.1% (904)
-12.7%
Power Play
49.5% (103)
56.5% (306)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (34)
62.9% (35)
-27.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +27.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Thompson is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (612).
Thompson shoots right. Hertl is 58.6% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Thompson
Hertl
Home
46.1% (438)
59.5% (634)
Away
44.8% (420)
56.1% (611)
By Period
Thompson
Hertl
P1
46.9%
52.3%
P2
47.3%
63.7%
P3
42.1%
57.8%
OT
42.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.8%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
54.0%▲
45.0%
45.5%
Hertl
54.0%▼
57.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:14 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 04:02 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |