Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Thompson wins 40.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 41.2% vs Hertl 52.3% (-12.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 85.8%
Defensive zone
Thompson 86.3%
Neutral zone
Thompson 91.5%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 89.6%
89.6%
10.4%
Thompson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
Thompson
Hertl
Last 10: Thompson 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Thompson
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
5
Thompson
Hertl
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
40.6% (801)
51.6% (1,084)
-11.0%
Power Play
44.7% (103)
61.0% (246)
-16.3%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (71)
44.1% (136)
-13.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Thompson is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (724).
Thompson shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Thompson
Hertl
Home
43.2% (507)
55.2% (696)
Away
37.2% (468)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Thompson
Hertl
P1
37.7%
55.4%
P2
43.4%
54.8%
P3
39.5%
48.9%
OT
27.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
39.7%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
40.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 1 | 16:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 1 | 14:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 1 | 02:29 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 1 | 02:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 3 | 19:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 3 | 09:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 2 | 11:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |