Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Thompson wins 42.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 43.7% vs Hertl 55.4% (-13.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 96.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 87.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 93.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 91.3%
8.7%
91.3%
Thompson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Thompson
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
0
Thompson
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
0
Thompson
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
0
Thompson
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (597)
54.1% (717)
-12.2%
Power Play
50.5% (95)
61.9% (210)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
58.1% (31)
-33.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +33.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Thompson is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Thompson shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Thompson
Hertl
Home
47.1% (367)
58.1% (492)
Away
38.0% (337)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Thompson
Hertl
P1
44.2%
57.1%
P2
41.6%
54.0%
P3
42.9%
56.6%
OT
25.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 15:41 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 11:47 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |