Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thompson wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 43.8% vs Hertl 54.5% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 84.4%
Defensive zone
Thompson 59.6%
Neutral zone
Thompson 54.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Thompson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Thompson
Hertl
Last 6: Thompson 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Thompson
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
0
Thompson
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Thompson
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (735)
54.1% (1,117)
-10.8%
Power Play
50.0% (26)
59.8% (296)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (52)
34.4% (32)
+2.1%
On even strength, Hertl has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Thompson is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Thompson shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Thompson
Hertl
Home
44.5% (407)
54.3% (709)
Away
41.6% (406)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Thompson
Hertl
P1
44.4%
51.6%
P2
44.8%
53.6%
P3
40.2%
58.6%
OT
42.9%
45.5%
Final 5 min
38.9%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 05:35 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 02:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 02:02 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 15:34 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 00:48 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 00:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |