Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Thompson wins 39.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 44.0% vs Hertl 56.8% (-14.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 89.6%
Defensive zone
Thompson 83.9%
Neutral zone
Thompson 85.6%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 85.7%
85.7%
14.3%
Thompson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
11
(15 meetings)
4
11
Thompson
Hertl
Last 10: Thompson 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Thompson
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Thompson
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Thompson
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.6% (709)
57.0% (718)
-12.4%
Power Play
41.5% (53)
64.9% (188)
-23.4%
Penalty Kill
35.1% (97)
44.2% (77)
-9.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Thompson is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Thompson shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Thompson
Hertl
Home
45.5% (426)
59.2% (463)
Away
41.1% (433)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Thompson
Hertl
P1
48.5%
56.3%
P2
43.8%
55.4%
P3
38.1%
60.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
37.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 06:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 02:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 02:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 02:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:01 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 12:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 09:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 05:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 03:29 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 03:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |