Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Thompson wins 40.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 42.8% vs Hertl 54.2% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 25-17 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 86.4%
Defensive zone
Thompson 86.5%
Neutral zone
Thompson 84.4%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 85.6%
85.6%
14.4%
Thompson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
25
(42 meetings)
17
25
Thompson
Hertl
Last 10: Thompson 8-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Thompson
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
10
Thompson
Hertl
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
10
Thompson
Hertl
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (3,521)
53.8% (8,268)
-10.9%
Power Play
46.8% (372)
59.3% (1,975)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
33.6% (265)
46.3% (806)
-12.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Thompson is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,011).
Thompson shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Thompson
Hertl
Home
44.9% (2,115)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
40.3% (2,043)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Thompson
Hertl
P1
44.5%
53.6%
P2
43.6%
54.1%
P3
40.2%
55.3%
OT
36.4%
46.5%
Final 5 min
41.0%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:14 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 04:02 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 15:41 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 11:47 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 06:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 02:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 02:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 02:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:01 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 12:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 09:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |