Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kerfoot on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 48.0% vs Hertl 56.8% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 82.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 85.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 86.3%
13.7%
86.3%
Kerfoot
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Kerfoot
Hertl
Last 6: Kerfoot 5-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
4
1
Kerfoot
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
1
0
Kerfoot
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (595)
57.0% (718)
-6.6%
Power Play
45.2% (124)
64.9% (188)
-19.7%
Penalty Kill
39.2% (143)
44.2% (77)
-5.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kerfoot is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (528).
Kerfoot shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
Hertl
Home
51.4% (467)
59.2% (463)
Away
43.5% (395)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Kerfoot
Hertl
P1
49.1%
56.3%
P2
42.4%
55.4%
P3
52.7%
60.5%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
47.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 10:57 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 16:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 07:40 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 18:35 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 12:50 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |