Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.7% vs 54.8%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Jenner wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 54.4% vs Hertl 54.5% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 61.0%
Defensive zone
Jenner 65.9%
Neutral zone
Jenner 57.1%
Result
Boone Jenner favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Jenner
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
Jenner
Hertl
Last 10: Jenner 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Jenner
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Jenner
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Jenner
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (999)
54.1% (1,117)
+0.1%
Power Play
60.0% (240)
59.8% (296)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
49.7% (147)
34.4% (32)
+15.3%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jenner is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Jenner shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Jenner
Hertl
Home
56.7% (693)
54.3% (709)
Away
52.7% (693)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Jenner
Hertl
P1
57.1%
51.6%
P2
54.1%
53.6%
P3
53.0%
58.6%
OT
61.9%
45.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 13:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 02:20 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 13:58 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 06:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 17:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 04:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 04:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |