Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Blackwell on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 49.3% vs Hertl 55.4% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Blackwell leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 95.8%
Defensive zone
Blackwell 68.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 78.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
Blackwell
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Blackwell
Hertl
Last 10: Blackwell 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Blackwell
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
5
0
Blackwell
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (184)
54.1% (717)
-5.7%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
61.9% (210)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (121)
58.1% (31)
-8.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Blackwell is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Blackwell shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Blackwell
Hertl
Home
41.7% (151)
58.1% (492)
Away
56.1% (157)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Blackwell
Hertl
P1
46.5%
57.1%
P2
52.4%
54.0%
P3
48.5%
56.6%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.3%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
44.0%▬
44.5%
49.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:42 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 02:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 10:48 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:08 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 15:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:18 | Offensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:09 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 09:32 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |