Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Hertl 55.4% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 80.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 76.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 75.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
McDavid
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
McDavid
Hertl
Last 6: McDavid 1-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
McDavid
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
McDavid
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
McDavid
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
54.1% (717)
-6.4%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
61.9% (210)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
58.1% (31)
-35.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +35.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hertl
Home
47.3% (387)
58.1% (492)
Away
48.1% (389)
53.6% (466)
By Period
McDavid
Hertl
P1
47.6%
57.1%
P2
50.0%
54.0%
P3
45.0%
56.6%
Final 5 min
46.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 16:18 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 11:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 06:08 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 16:30 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |