Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Lazar wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 58.1% vs Hertl 57.1% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 87.8%
Defensive zone
Lazar 81.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Lazar
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Lazar
Hertl
Last 10: Lazar 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
7
Lazar
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
3
0
Lazar
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
1
0
Lazar
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
63.8% (174)
58.0% (816)
+5.8%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
56.5% (260)
-56.5%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (71)
62.9% (35)
-6.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +56.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lazar is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (198).
Lazar shoots right. Hertl is 59.5% vs right-shot opponents (422).
Home / Away
Lazar
Hertl
Home
63.3% (128)
59.7% (561)
Away
59.3% (118)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Lazar
Hertl
P1
64.6%
51.4%
P2
60.5%
64.1%
P3
59.0%
58.5%
Final 5 min
68.4%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
61.4%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 03:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 03:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 14:04 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 12:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 12:06 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:36 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 10:57 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 05:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 01:33 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |