Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 50.3% vs Hertl 54.3% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 83.9%
Defensive zone
Malkin 73.8%
Neutral zone
Malkin 72.7%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 74.4%
74.4%
25.6%
Malkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Malkin
Hertl
Last 9: Malkin 2-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Malkin
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Malkin
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Malkin
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (774)
54.7% (570)
-4.2%
Power Play
53.3% (92)
55.2% (143)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
10.0% (10)
54.5% (77)
-44.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +44.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Malkin is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (575).
Malkin shoots left. Hertl is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Malkin
Hertl
Home
49.1% (411)
56.2% (379)
Away
51.4% (465)
53.5% (411)
By Period
Malkin
Hertl
P1
49.5%
53.4%
P2
54.7%
52.7%
P3
46.7%
57.6%
OT
47.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.2%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
50.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2020 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 17:30 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 15:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 14:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 03:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 1 | 14:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |