Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 25 meetings). Lundeström wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundeström 46.5% vs Hertl 54.2% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Lundeström leads 32-26 in 58 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 93.8%
Defensive zone
Lundeström 53.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 69.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 72.6%
27.4%
72.6%
Lundeström
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
32
-
26
(58 meetings)
32
26
Lundeström
Hertl
Last 10: Lundeström 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
18
Lundeström
Hertl
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundeström
13
5
Lundeström
Hertl
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lundeström
12
3
Lundeström
Hertl
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundeström
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (2,987)
53.8% (8,268)
-6.5%
Power Play
51.4% (74)
59.3% (1,975)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (582)
46.3% (806)
-5.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lundeström is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,460).
Lundeström shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Lundeström
Hertl
Home
47.0% (1,826)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
45.8% (1,817)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Lundeström
Hertl
P1
49.2%
53.6%
P2
45.6%
54.1%
P3
44.5%
55.3%
OT
45.5%
46.5%
Final 5 min
44.4%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundeström
52.0%▬
52.0%
46.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 15:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 2 | 18:15 | Offensive | Isac Lundeström |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 2 | 08:33 | Defensive | Isac Lundeström |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 1 | 01:33 | Defensive | Isac Lundeström |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 06:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Isac Lundeström |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 1 | 05:13 | Defensive | Isac Lundeström |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 3 | 16:33 | Defensive | Isac Lundeström |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 3 | 04:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 1 | 12:35 | Neutral | Isac Lundeström |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 3 | 17:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 12:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 01:40 | Defensive | Isac Lundeström |