Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 49.5% vs Hertl 52.3% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 62.6%
Defensive zone
Eller 74.1%
Neutral zone
Eller 67.6%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 67.2%
67.2%
32.8%
Eller
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Eller
Hertl
Last 5: Eller 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Eller
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Eller
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (786)
51.6% (1,084)
-0.5%
Power Play
45.0% (80)
61.0% (246)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (165)
44.1% (136)
-0.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Eller is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (677).
Eller shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Eller
Hertl
Home
51.2% (510)
55.2% (696)
Away
47.8% (521)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Eller
Hertl
P1
50.7%
55.4%
P2
49.0%
54.8%
P3
48.3%
48.9%
OT
56.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.8%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 19:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 19:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 15:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 02:49 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 10:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |