Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 49.5% vs Hertl 55.4% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 82.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 84.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 85.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 82.8%
17.2%
82.8%
Scheifele
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Scheifele
Hertl
Last 5: Scheifele 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
3
1
Scheifele
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
0
Scheifele
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (981)
54.1% (717)
-5.4%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
61.9% (210)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (37)
58.1% (31)
-14.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Scheifele is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (925).
Scheifele shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Hertl
Home
50.0% (672)
58.1% (492)
Away
48.8% (596)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Scheifele
Hertl
P1
51.4%
57.1%
P2
45.1%
54.0%
P3
51.9%
56.6%
OT
58.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.0%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
49.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 17:46 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 13:07 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 16:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 13:00 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 03:15 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |