Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 12 meetings). Rantanen wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rantanen 50.8% vs Hertl 54.2% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 13-11 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Rantanen 92.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 86.8%
Neutral zone
Rantanen 60.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Rantanen
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
13
(24 meetings)
11
13
Rantanen
Hertl
Last 10: Rantanen 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rantanen
9
0
Rantanen
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
12
Rantanen
Hertl
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rantanen
2
1
Rantanen
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rantanen
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,522)
53.8% (8,268)
-2.8%
Power Play
50.8% (484)
59.3% (1,975)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
46.3% (806)
-32.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +32.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Rantanen is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,228).
Rantanen shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Rantanen
Hertl
Home
53.0% (1,067)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
48.3% (946)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Rantanen
Hertl
P1
49.0%
53.6%
P2
51.3%
54.1%
P3
51.8%
55.3%
OT
57.8%
46.5%
Final 5 min
47.3%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rantanen
50.0%▼
52.5%
50.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 07:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 16:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 04:21 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 08:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 08:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 18:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 18:26 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 15:20 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 1 | 11:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 15:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 07:13 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 02:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 19:12 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 15:35 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 1 | 09:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 15:40 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |