Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKinnon wins 42.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.2% vs Hertl 51.4% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 75.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 81.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 79.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 78.8%
78.8%
21.2%
MacKinnon
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
MacKinnon
Hertl
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
MacKinnon
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
MacKinnon
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
42.8% (1,039)
51.7% (869)
-8.9%
Power Play
50.8% (118)
55.7% (176)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (26)
44.9% (138)
+1.3%
On even strength, Hertl has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. MacKinnon is 42.2% vs left-shot opponents (889).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hertl is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (480).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hertl
Home
48.0% (586)
51.8% (583)
Away
39.5% (597)
51.2% (600)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hertl
P1
46.1%
52.5%
P2
41.5%
50.9%
P3
43.8%
51.0%
OT
33.3%
53.3%
Final 5 min
47.1%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
43.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2019 | 2 | 06:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2019 | 2 | 03:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2019 | 2 | 01:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2019 | 1 | 07:25 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 18:27 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 13:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 09:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 2 | 14:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 2 | 14:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 2 | 00:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 00:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2019 | 2 | 06:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2019 | 1 | 15:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |