Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 48.7% vs Hertl 54.7% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 16-10 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 70.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 80.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 68.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 71.5%
71.5%
28.5%
MacKinnon
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
16
(26 meetings)
10
16
MacKinnon
Hertl
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
5
MacKinnon
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
MacKinnon
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
7
MacKinnon
Hertl
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (439)
55.7% (648)
-7.2%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
60.4% (149)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
42.2% (83)
-17.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (424).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hertl is 61.8% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hertl
Home
52.5% (221)
58.3% (391)
Away
45.2% (272)
52.8% (489)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hertl
P1
50.5%
58.9%
P2
45.5%
51.5%
P3
48.5%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
76.9%
Final 5 min
44.1%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
48.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 06:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 02:50 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 02:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 19:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 10:50 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 5, 2021 | 1 | 12:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| May 5, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 15:23 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 08:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 03:54 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 10:36 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 17:47 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 13:02 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 03:24 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 30, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 30, 2021 | 1 | 15:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 30, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |