Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (87% H2H, 15 meetings). MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Hertl 56.8% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 23-6 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 86.0%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 91.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 94.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 91.4%
91.4%
8.6%
MacKinnon
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
23
(29 meetings)
6
23
MacKinnon
Hertl
Last 10: MacKinnon 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
7
MacKinnon
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
MacKinnon
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
13
MacKinnon
Hertl
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
57.0% (718)
-11.5%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
64.9% (188)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
44.2% (77)
-4.2%
On even strength, Hertl has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hertl
Home
47.8% (670)
59.2% (463)
Away
44.6% (644)
56.0% (520)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hertl
P1
45.3%
56.3%
P2
48.5%
55.4%
P3
45.0%
60.5%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:44 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 16:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 11:58 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:32 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 08:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 16:31 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 14:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 12:40 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 08:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 16:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 18:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 08:29 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 08:21 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 3 | 14:52 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |