Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Hertl 54.5% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 82.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 89.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 78.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Dowd
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Dowd
Hertl
Last 6: Dowd 0-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Dowd
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Dowd
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Dowd
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (625)
54.1% (1,117)
+1.1%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
59.8% (296)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (220)
34.4% (32)
+3.8%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Dowd shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Dowd
Hertl
Home
53.7% (445)
54.3% (709)
Away
47.7% (407)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Dowd
Hertl
P1
48.8%
51.6%
P2
49.3%
53.6%
P3
54.0%
58.6%
OT
44.4%
45.5%
Final 5 min
49.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 17:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 12:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 19:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 10:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 10:07 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |