Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +24.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Buchnevich wins 28.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 36.3% vs Hertl 54.5% (-24.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 61.0%
Defensive zone
Buchnevich 71.6%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 74.9%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Buchnevich
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Buchnevich
Hertl
Last 7: Buchnevich 2-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Buchnevich
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Buchnevich
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Buchnevich
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
28.6% (192)
54.1% (1,117)
-25.5%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
59.8% (296)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (13)
34.4% (32)
-3.6%
On even strength, Hertl has a +25.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Buchnevich is 28.7% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Buchnevich shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Hertl
Home
30.4% (112)
54.3% (709)
Away
29.4% (102)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Buchnevich
Hertl
P1
27.7%
51.6%
P2
33.3%
53.6%
P3
27.7%
58.6%
Final 5 min
33.3%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
29.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 11:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 05:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 02:37 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |