Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Couturier wins 57.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Couturier 56.6% vs Hertl 51.4% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 71.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 65.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 66.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 68.4%
31.6%
68.4%
Couturier
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Couturier
Hertl
Last 9: Couturier 3-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Couturier
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Couturier
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
2
1
Couturier
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Couturier
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (1,008)
51.7% (869)
+3.9%
Power Play
71.7% (138)
55.7% (176)
+16.0%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (177)
44.9% (138)
+9.3%
On power play, Couturier has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Couturier is 57.8% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Couturier shoots left. Hertl is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Couturier
Hertl
Home
59.8% (696)
51.8% (583)
Away
54.1% (627)
51.2% (600)
By Period
Couturier
Hertl
P1
54.3%
52.5%
P2
59.8%
50.9%
P3
56.6%
51.0%
OT
64.3%
53.3%
Final 5 min
54.7%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
57.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2018 | 2 | 09:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 2 | 07:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 2 | 05:25 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 1 | 10:48 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 1 | 10:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 1 | 07:24 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 1 | 02:59 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 1 | 00:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 3 | 03:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |