Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hertl wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 57.2% vs Novak 43.4% (+16.0%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 50.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Hertl
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Hertl
Novak
Last 10: Hertl 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Hertl
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Hertl
Novak
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (823)
41.4% (379)
+16.7%
Power Play
56.2% (265)
46.9% (32)
+9.3%
On even strength, Hertl has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Hertl shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Hertl
Novak
Home
59.7% (561)
42.6% (195)
Away
55.9% (562)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Hertl
Novak
P1
51.6%
42.4%
P2
63.8%
39.2%
P3
58.6%
44.7%
OT
28.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.2%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 01:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 3 | 03:19 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:16 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 17:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 15:06 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 07:29 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 14:56 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |