Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.2% vs Novak 43.3% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 58.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 64.7%
Neutral zone
Novak 53.7%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Hertl
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
9
(17 meetings)
8
9
Hertl
Novak
Last 10: Hertl 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
4
Hertl
Novak
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
1
Hertl
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
4
Hertl
Novak
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (8,268)
42.1% (1,539)
+11.7%
Power Play
59.3% (1,975)
51.9% (133)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (806)
50.0% (2)
-3.7%
On even strength, Hertl has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Hertl shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Hertl
Novak
Home
55.7% (5,344)
45.3% (814)
Away
52.8% (5,705)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Hertl
Novak
P1
53.6%
43.9%
P2
54.1%
42.8%
P3
55.3%
41.7%
OT
46.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.6%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 01:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 3 | 03:19 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:16 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 17:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 15:06 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 07:29 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 14:56 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 16:08 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 13:26 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 02:40 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 08:13 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 3 | 14:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:50 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 1 | 16:10 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |