Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +15.3% FO% edge overall. Hertl wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 56.8% vs Novak 43.5% (+15.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 70.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 64.1%
Neutral zone
Novak 59.8%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 66.9%
33.1%
66.9%
Hertl
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Hertl
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Hertl
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (718)
40.7% (460)
+16.3%
Power Play
64.9% (188)
61.5% (39)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (77)
0.0% (1)
+44.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +44.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Hertl shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Hertl
Novak
Home
59.2% (463)
47.0% (236)
Away
56.0% (520)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Hertl
Novak
P1
56.3%
43.1%
P2
55.4%
43.1%
P3
60.5%
40.1%
Final 5 min
56.7%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 13:26 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 02:40 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 08:13 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |