Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.2% FO% edge overall. Hertl wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 55.4% vs Novak 45.0% (+13.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 51.7%
Defensive zone
Novak 55.9%
Neutral zone
Novak 59.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 55.9%
44.1%
55.9%
Hertl
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Hertl
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Hertl
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (717)
42.9% (198)
+11.2%
Power Play
61.9% (210)
40.9% (22)
+21.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +21.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Hertl shoots left. Novak is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
Hertl
Novak
Home
58.1% (492)
40.9% (110)
Away
53.6% (466)
44.5% (110)
By Period
Hertl
Novak
P1
57.1%
39.1%
P2
54.0%
43.9%
P3
56.6%
44.9%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
25.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 16:08 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |