Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 52.3% vs Novak 46.5% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 71.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.9%
Neutral zone
Novak 56.8%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Hertl
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Hertl
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Hertl
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (1,084)
43.2% (118)
+8.4%
Power Play
61.0% (246)
47.8% (23)
+13.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Hertl shoots left. Novak is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Hertl
Novak
Home
55.2% (696)
50.7% (71)
Away
50.0% (770)
37.1% (70)
By Period
Hertl
Novak
P1
55.4%
44.7%
P2
54.8%
50.0%
P3
48.9%
38.9%
Final 5 min
54.9%
35.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2021 | 1 | 16:10 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |