Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.5% vs Novak 45.6% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 75.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 75.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 75.6%
75.6%
24.4%
Hertl
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Hertl
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (1,117)
43.8% (384)
+10.3%
Power Play
59.8% (296)
58.8% (17)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
100.0% (1)
-65.6%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +65.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Hertl shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Hertl
Novak
Home
54.3% (709)
46.5% (202)
Away
55.3% (736)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Hertl
Novak
P1
51.6%
49.2%
P2
53.6%
44.2%
P3
58.6%
40.0%
OT
45.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2023 | 3 | 14:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:50 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |