Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +18.2% FO% edge overall. Hertl wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 57.2% vs Jost 45.0% (+18.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 73.1%
Defensive zone
Jost 62.1%
Neutral zone
Jost 52.2%
Result
Tyson Jost favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Hertl
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Hertl
Jost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
0
1
Hertl
Jost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Jost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (823)
39.3% (84)
+18.8%
Power Play
56.2% (265)
0.0% (1)
+56.2%
Penalty Kill
62.9% (35)
50.0% (6)
+12.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +56.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Hertl shoots left. Jost is 34.5% vs left-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
Hertl
Jost
Home
59.7% (561)
38.5% (52)
Away
55.9% (562)
41.0% (39)
By Period
Hertl
Jost
P1
51.6%
40.6%
P2
63.8%
38.9%
P3
58.6%
39.1%
Final 5 min
58.2%
37.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
39.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 19:24 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 14:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |