Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.5% vs 51.7%). Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 52.3% vs Karlsson 51.5% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 50.2%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 50.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Hertl
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Hertl
Karlsson
Last 9: Hertl 4-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hertl
Karlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
2
3
Hertl
Karlsson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hertl
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (1,084)
51.4% (735)
+0.2%
Power Play
61.0% (246)
63.5% (115)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (136)
42.9% (133)
+1.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Hertl shoots left. Karlsson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Home / Away
Hertl
Karlsson
Home
55.2% (696)
52.3% (524)
Away
50.0% (770)
51.0% (459)
By Period
Hertl
Karlsson
P1
55.4%
50.7%
P2
54.8%
51.4%
P3
48.9%
53.2%
OT
33.3%
41.2%
Final 5 min
54.9%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 03:38 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 07:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 3 | 16:38 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 1 | 16:54 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 3 | 04:39 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 2 | 05:53 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 1 | 08:36 | Offensive | William Karlsson |